Messaggioda zampaflex » 28 mag 2015 09:35
Estratto di un report che si focalizza sulla visione di medio termine. La ripresa globale è in moto...
I believe the deflation scare of 2014 will give way to a global economic surprise in 2015. The type of deflation likely to be observed this year will benefit the global economy and provide a welcome boost to real household incomes. In my mind, the collapse in oil prices is good deflation; a decline in demand, wages, or forward expectations causes bad deflation. Once the shock of the speed of the recent drop in oil prices is overcome, cheaper oil will undoubtedly be an important net positive for the world economy later in the year.
There is little evidence that expectations of future price declines are suppressing employment, wages, consumer spending intentions, or even global manufacturing activity. Global recruitment difficulties are back at 2006 levels, and there is mounting evidence that wage gains should begin to accelerate where they are needed most: the US, Germany, and Japan.
The US created nearly 3 million jobs in 2014, and real wages have risen more over the past year than at any other point since 2009. Strong momentum in the labor market, ongoing recovery in the US housing market, positive wealth effects from a buoyant stock market, and declines in energy prices should all combine to generate strong consumer-led growth.
It is getting more difficult to attract and retain labor. The tighter labor market has led Walmart, the nation’s largest private employer, to increase wages for 500,000 of its most poorly paid workers. The company plans to spend about $1 billion a year to raise the pay of all employees (1.3 million) to at least $9 an hour, and to at least $10 an hour by next February. I believe Walmart’s bold initiative will lead to higher wages being set for entry-level jobs throughout the retail sector, a trend that may impact over 15 million people.
A look at interest rates, currency values, and reduced energy costs suggests that Europe and Japan will receive a significant reflationary boost. Europe’s economic turnaround is in its early stages and could provide a positive growth surprise over the next two years. The liquidity spigots are wide open, and the largely recapitalized banking system is responding to credit demand, as indicated by the latest ECB bank lending survey. Money supply and bank lending have continued to recover, with loan growth in the euro area about to turn positive for the first time since 2012.
The recent German consumer confidence reading was the highest it has been since 2001. German unemployment is near post-reunification lows, and real wages are growing at the fastest pace in over 20 years. IG Metall, Germany’s largest union, just settled on a 3.4% annual pay rise for its workers in southern Germany. More importantly, the deal is seen as a bellwether for salary negotiations in the rest of the country. Reports suggest that 32 regional contracts (covering seven unions and about 6.5 million workers) expire this year.
This is an essential part of euro-area rebalancing that should support growth in neighboring countries by way of a competitive boost. The Spanish labor market has enjoyed its best year since 2007, and the eurozone’s overall unemployment rate has fallen to a 33-month low.
Deflation is in the process of ending in Japan. The Bank of Japan has successfully cheapened the yen to its most competitive level since 1973 on a real effective exchange-rate basis. Export volumes are rising, and Japan’s balance of payments on tourism has turned positive for the first time in a long time. According to Peter Tasker, in terms of discretionary spending, the tourist boom is equivalent to an increase in the Japanese population of 1.4 million.
With the jobless rate down to 3.4%, Japan should be able to finally achieve some real wage growth this year. Just as Prime Minister Abe has been able to produce a genuine shift in the corporate governance climate in Japan, I firmly believe that Abe will be able to cajole corporate leaders to hike salaries as well, so as to “spread the warm winds of economic recovery to everyone throughout the country.” Last month, Toyota granted its employees their largest wage increase in more than a decade.
The global manufacturing sector has expanded for 28 consecutive months. Based on Markit’s recent Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) survey, the rate of output growth accelerated as companies scaled up production to meet rising levels of new work and new export orders. As US economic growth should now be driven more by consumption (which represents two-thirds of the US economy) rather than capital expenditures (capex), this implies stronger global trade, a wider US trade deficit, and a softer US dollar going forward.
The cyclical path of least resistance for commodities may also turn up later this year. A pickup in global PMIs suggests that we may have seen the worst of commodity price deflation. Oil excess supply remains elevated, but prices appear to have bottomed. According to Aurelija Augulyte, a senior analyst at Nordea Markets, even if you hold the dollar and oil prices at current levels, the base effects will effortlessly push the inflation up in the second half of this year.
Global core inflation appears to have already troughed. The number of nations where CPI fell month-over-month has collapsed from 23 in December and 33 in January to just 9 in February. I suspect downside pressure on global inflation readings will soon be exhausted.
Forward-looking indicators suggest that core inflation in Europe should also soon turn positive and begin to trend higher. It will become difficult for policymakers to maintain their ultra-dovish tone, with economic momentum improving and inflation rising later in the year. The cyclical upswing will dial back central bank aggression, in my view. Interest rates around the world will remain low, however, to help reduce the budget costs of a large public debt burden.
Non progredi est regredi
che a quanto leggo è impermeabile alla crisi, o almeno tiene duro.
), credo sarà una lettura che lascerà più d'una persona un po' perplessa.
